HIDALGO COUNTY, Texas – South Texas is again emerging as a central battleground for control of Congress as Democrats test whether economic concerns and opposition to immigration raids can overcome Republican gains among Hispanic voters.
Texas Republicans redrew congressional boundaries in 2025 with the goal of adding GOP seats. The new map reshaped districts represented by Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez and created or strengthened contests involving Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz and Democratic challenger Bobby Pulido.
President Donald Trump carried each of the newly configured South Texas districts by at least 10 percentage points in 2024. Democrats argue, however, that results farther down the ballot and recent primary turnout show the districts may be more competitive than the presidential numbers suggest.
Cuellar's district became more Republican based on the presidential vote, but his campaign says Democratic congressional candidates performed slightly better within the new boundaries. Republican redistricting strategist Adam Kincaid disputed that interpretation and said statewide results were the proper basis for evaluating the map.
Immigration enforcement is likely to be a defining issue. Construction, agriculture and other labor-intensive industries have reported workers staying home or leaving jobs because of enforcement fears. Gonzalez has said voters support removing violent offenders but are concerned about raids that affect otherwise law-abiding workers and local businesses.
Republicans continue to emphasize border security, inflation and dissatisfaction with the Biden administration. Monica De La Cruz has said she hears fear within the community while urging federal enforcement to focus on cartels, traffickers and violent criminals.
The political question is whether voters who moved toward Republicans in 2024 will remain with the party. Both sides are investing in turnout, registration and localized campaigns across majority-Hispanic districts that extend north from the border.
